PSYC 2400: Offender and Geographic Profiling

Contents

1. 1. Offender Profiling
   1. 1.1 Goals of Profiling
   2. 1.2 A History of Offender Profiling
   3. 1.3 Constructing a Profile
      1. Inductive Profiling
      2. Deductive Profiling
      3. Organized-Disorganized Model (FBI Model of Offender Profiling)
2. 2. Geographic Profiling
   1. 2.1 Goals of Profiling
   2. 2.2 Principles and Assumptions
   3. 2.3 Limitations of Geographic Profiling
   4. 2.4 Computerized Systems vs. Cheaper Alternatives

1. Offender Profiling

Offender Profiling: there is no one accepted definition but we’ll focus on the narrow definition – a technique for identifying the personality and behavioural features of an offender based on an analysis of the crimes they’ve committed.

1.1 Goals of Profiling

There are 5 major goals of profiling (PEIS-FO – Prioritize, Enquire, Strategize, Predict, Flush-Out):

1. Suspect Prioritization: to initially narrow down the list of subjects.
2. New Lines of Enquiry: to find more evidence and leads on different suspects.
3. Interview Strategies: you use different strategies based on the person you’re talking to (children vs. adults, men vs. women, etc)
4. Predict Dangerousness: to determine whether or not the person will re-offend.
5. Flush Out Offender: where police feed the media information in order to flush out the offender.

1.2 A History of Offender Profiling

Here are the earliest cases of offender profiling:

• Jack the Ripper (1880s): the first use of offender profiling to tie the various killings to him.
• Hitler (30s and 40s): the US government were hired to profile him – their predictions were surprisingly accurate.
• Mad Bomber (George Metesky) (40s and 50s): he bombed various areas in New York for 16 years – he was apprehended somewhat because of offender profiling.

That being said, the FBI claims to be the first to pioneer offender profiling in their Behaviour Science Unit (research centre) with Rob Ressler, John Douglas (Silence of the Lambs) and Roy Hazelwood (big player in academic research on serial rap).

In Canada, the RCMP uses the following 5 techniques to profile offenders:

• Offender Profiling
• Geographic Profiling
• Truth Verification: where techniques such as polygraph analysis and statement validity analysis are used.
• ViCLAS (Violent Crime Linkage System): used to identify when similar crimes are occurring over time and space (officers are supposed to fill out a form and enter it into a system so that the people at ViCLAS can find crime trends).
• National Sex Offender Registry.

1.3 Constructing a Profile

The basics: WHAT + WHY = WHO; the issues are how do you determine what’s important, what’s motive (the WHY) and how do you combine WHAT and WHY to get WHO?

Inductive Profiling

Inductive Profiling: where you use information about one offender and apply it to other offenders; in other words, you’re identifying similarities between different offenders and their crimes and generalizing in order to get a profile.

Issues: there is a lack of database information.

Deductive Profiling

Deductive Profiling (Sherlock Holmes): using information from the offender to profile that offender; in other words, you use logic and reasoning to deduce information.

Issues: poor logic and reasoning can lead to incorrect information (or an incorrect profile).

Organized-Disorganized Model (FBI Model of Offender Profiling)

Organized-Disorganized Model: a theory where the offender’s background and crimes can be classified as organized (self-control/methodical and well-planned) or disorganized (impulsive/psychopathic and chaotic).

Table 1 - A Comparison of an Offender’s Organized and Disorganized Crime and Background

	Organized	Disorganized
Offence Behaviours (Crime)	Planning Use of restraints Ante-mortem abuse Use of vehicle Control of victim	Evidence is left Position of the body Post-mortem abuse Keeps body No vehicle
Offender Characteristics (Background)	Intelligent Skilled in job Decent car Follows media	Sexually ignorant Knows victim Lives alone Lives close to crime

Criticisms of Organized-Disorganized Model

The bulk of the research suggests that most offenders fit both profiles to some degree (organized and disorganized). Here are 4 major criticisms:

1. Theoretical Underpinnings: the ‘classic trait’ model is used to infer traits and behaviours about a person in order to predict future behaviour; these predictions are dependent on stable traits which have been proven to be not the case.
2. Prevalence of Mixed Crime Scenes: most offenders and crimes fit into both the organized and disorganized category.
3. Ambiguous Advice: (Barnum Effect – cold readers) often the way a profile is written can be interpreted in many different ways.
4. Myth of the Expert: professional profilers show no significant increase in profiling effectiveness over detectives, and university students (and regular Joe-Blows).

And here’s the FBI’s response to these criticisms: because their profilers are in high demand, they believe that their techniques are justified – they also downplay the need for empirical evidence.

2. Geographic Profiling

Geographic Profiling: a technique used in serial crime investigations that involve an analysis of crime scene locations in order to determine the most probable area of offender residence. It helps investigators prioritize the list of subjects to the most likely regions of residence.
This was created by Stuart Kind in the Ripper case.

Where does it fit?

• A bunch of crimes happen
• Traditional investigative techniques are used
• Linkage analysis (ViCLAS)
• Criminal profile is developed
• Geographic profile
• New investigative strategies

2.1 Goals of Profiling

There are 3 main goals of geographic profiling (PriSaCa – Prioritize, Saturate and Canvass):

1. Suspect Prioritization: you can narrow down the list of potential suspects considerably.
2. Patrol Saturation and Surveillance: you can have more effective patrolling if you can narrow down the locations.
3. Neighbourhood Canvasses: you can have more effective canvassing if you stick to areas where the offender is more likely to live.

2.2 Principles and Assumptions

Geographic profiling is based on the assumption that offenders tend to live within a circle defined by a diameter that is dictated by the two farther crimes. That is, universally, across crimes and countries, offenders maraud out of their residence and commit their crimes (~2km away). The distance they travel is known and the Distance Decay.
(The exception is the commuters: break-and-enters).

2.3 Limitations of Geographic Profiling

Because we assume that serial crimes are typically committed a short distance from the offender’s home, any deviation from that assumption can provide incorrect data (ex. Ted Bundy who travelled across the United States).

2.4 Computerized Systems vs. Cheaper Alternatives

Though we’ve developed sophisticated computerized systems (ex. Dragnet) to calculate the distance decay for serial crimes and therefore the likely areas of search, it’s been proven that providing training to officers can provide about the same amount of accurate predictions.